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The Mystery of Marie Roget.(*1) — Edgar Allan Poe (reading text) — reading text
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purposes to discover. With the first glimpse we obtain of it, the dawn of
our success shall begin. This boat shall guide us, with a rapidity which
will surprise even ourselves, to him who employed it in the midnight of
the fatal Sabbath. Corroboration will rise upon corroboration, and the
murderer will be traced.”
[For reasons which we shall not specify, but which to many readers will
appear obvious, we have taken the liberty of here omitting, from the MSS.
placed in our hands, such portion as details the following up of the
apparently slight clew obtained by Dupin. We feel it advisable only to
state, in brief, that the result desired was brought to pass; and that the
Prefect fulfilled punctually, although with reluctance, the terms of his
compact with the Chevalier. Mr. Poe’s article concludes with the following
words.—Eds. (*23)]
It will be understood that I speak of coincidences and no more. What I
have said above upon this topic must suffice. In my own heart there dwells
no faith in præter-nature. That Nature and its God are two, no man
who thinks, will deny. That the latter, creating the former, can, at will,
control or modify it, is also unquestionable. I say “at will;” for the
question is of will, and not, as the insanity of logic has assumed, of
power. It is not that the Deity cannot modify his laws, but that we insult
him in imagining a possible necessity for modification. In their origin
these laws were fashioned to embrace all contingencies which could lie in
the Future. With God all is Now.
I repeat, then, that I speak of these things only as of coincidences. And
farther: in what I relate it will be seen that between the fate of the
unhappy Mary Cecilia Rogers, so far as that fate is known, and the fate of
one Marie Rogêt up to a certain epoch in her history, there has
existed a parallel in the contemplation of whose wonderful exactitude the
reason becomes embarrassed. I say all this will be seen. But let it not
for a moment be supposed that, in proceeding with the sad narrative of
Marie from the epoch just mentioned, and in tracing to its dénouement
the mystery which enshrouded her, it is my covert design to hint at an
extension of the parallel, or even to suggest that the measures adopted in
Paris for the discovery of the assassin of a grisette, or measures founded
in any similar ratiocination, would produce any similar result.
For, in respect to the latter branch of the supposition, it should be
considered that the most trifling variation in the facts of the two cases
might give rise to the most important miscalculations, by diverting
thoroughly the two courses of events; very much as, in arithmetic, an
error which, in its own individuality, may be inappreciable, produces, at
length, by dint of multiplication at all points of the process, a result
enormously at variance with truth. And, in regard to the former branch, we
must not fail to hold in view that the very Calculus of Probabilities to
which I have referred, forbids all idea of the extension of the parallel—forbids
it with a positiveness strong and decided just in proportion as this
parallel has already been long-drawn and exact. This is one of those
anomalous propositions which, seemingly appealing to thought altogether
apart from the mathematical, is yet one which only the mathematician can
fully entertain. Nothing, for example, is more difficult than to convince
the merely general reader that the fact of sixes having been thrown twice
in succession by a player at dice, is sufficient cause for betting the
largest odds that sixes will not be thrown in the third attempt. A
suggestion to this effect is usually rejected by the intellect at once. It
does not appear that the two throws which have been completed, and which
lie now absolutely in the Past, can have influence upon the throw which
exists only in the Future. The chance for throwing sixes seems to be
precisely as it was at any ordinary time—that is to say, subject
only to the influence of the various other throws which may be made by the
dice. And this is a reflection which appears so exceedingly obvious that
attempts to controvert it are received more frequently with a derisive
smile than with anything like respectful attention. The error here
involved—a gross error redolent of mischief—I cannot pretend
to expose within the limits assigned me at present; and with the
philosophical it needs no exposure. It may be sufficient here to say that
it forms one of an infinite series of mistakes which arise in the path of
Reason through her propensity for seeking truth in detail.
FOOTNOTES—Marie Rogêt
(*1) Upon the original publication of “Marie Roget,” the foot-notes now
appended were considered unnecessary; but the lapse of several years since
the tragedy upon which the tale is based, renders it expedient to give
them, and also to say a few words in explanation of the general design. A
young girl, Mary Cecilia Rogers, was murdered in the vicinity of New York;
and, although her death occasioned an intense and long-enduring
excitement, the mystery attending it had remained unsolved at the period
when the present paper was written and published (November, 1842). Herein,
under pretence of relating the fate of a Parisian grisette, the author has
followed in minute detail, the essential, while merely paralleling the
inessential facts of the real murder of Mary Rogers. Thus all argument
founded upon the fiction is applicable to the truth: and the investigation
of the truth was the object. The “Mystery of Marie Roget” was composed at
a distance from the scene of the atrocity, and with no other means of
investigation than the newspapers afforded. Thus much escaped the writer
of which he could have availed himself had he been upon the spot, and
visited the localities. It may not be improper to record, nevertheless,
that the confessions of two persons, (one of them the Madame Deluc of the
narrative) made, at different periods, long subsequent to the publication,
confirmed, in full, not only the general conclusion, but absolutely all
the chief hypothetical details by which that conclusion was attained.
(*2) The nom de plume of Von Hardenburg.
(*3) Nassau Street.
(*4) Anderson.
(*5) The Hudson.
(*6) Weehawken.
(*7) Payne.
(*8) Crommelin.
(*9) The New York “Mercury.”
(*10) The New York “Brother Jonathan,” edited by H. Hastings Weld, Esq.
(*11) New York “Journal of Commerce.”
(*12) Philadelphia “Saturday Evening Post,” edited by C. I. Peterson, Esq.
(*13) Adam
(*14) See “Murders in the Rue Morgue.”
(*15) The New York “Commercial Advertiser,” edited by Col. Stone.
(*16) “A theory based on the qualities of an object, will prevent its
being unfolded according to its objects; and he who arranges topics in
reference to their causes, will cease to value them according to their
results. Thus the jurisprudence of every nation will show that, when law
becomes a science and a system, it ceases to be justice. The errors into
which a blind devotion to principles of classification has led the common
law, will be seen by observing how often the legislature has been obliged
to come forward to restore the equity its scheme had lost.”—Landor.
(*17) New York “Express”
(*18) New York “Herald.”
(*19) New York “Courier and Inquirer.”
(*20) Mennais was one of the parties originally suspected and arrested,
but discharged through total lack of evidence.
(*21) New York “Courier and Inquirer.”
(*22) New York “Evening Post.”
(*23) Of the Magazine in which the article was originally published.
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