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its prime
long term treasury bond yield hit another low of 5. 7 percent
recently. Currently, inflation is consistent at a low level.
It is expected to be about 2. 6 percent in 1993 --- down from
2. 9 percent in 1992. 3. 1 percent in 1991 and 6. 1 percent in
1990.
The backbone of growth in this nation is its exports. The
U. S. is expected to continue expansion of its
exports,
although at a lower rate than in previous expansions. due to
the recession in Europe and the slowdown in Japan. The United
States hit a high of 7. 7 percent unemployment in the 1991
recession and recovery. which was better than the best rate
achieved by Europe in the 1980s or 1990s to date ( 8. 3
1....
percent).
LOCAL ECONOMY ( NW FLORIDA)
Locally, over 17, 000 jobs were added in the second quarter in
NW Florida.
While all of Florida is currently in recovery, NW Florida is
one of the few areas in the state actually under expansion.
While Florida is adding jobs twice as fast as the nation. it
H""* is not doing so evenly across the state. Along with Orlando
and Ft. Lauderdale. Panama City, Ft. Walton Beach, and
Pensacola have all experienced the biggest rate increases in
employment in the state since the onset of the recession ~ n
1990. The military has always been a stabilizing presence for
NW F lor i d a' s e con 0 my. yet it is the p r i vat e s e c tor.
specifically health services, that has been the catalyst for
the area' s recent growth. Within services, 50 percent of the
growth is in health care, 18 percent is in personal services.
and 15 percent is in social services ( day care centers and
J!MW
l' nursing homes).
xiv
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Popu1ation( 000' s) 143 . 8 145. 7 147. 6 149. 4 151. 7
Growth 2. 2 1.9 1.9 1.8 2. 3
change 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.6
Employment( OOO' s) 53. 5 53. 7 54. 4 55. 3 56. 3
Growth 1.1 0. 2 0. 7 0. 9 1.0
change 2. 1 0. 4 1.2 1.7 1.8
Income ($ bils) 2. 3 2. 4 2. 6 2. 8 3. 0
change 7. 8 6. 3 6. 9 7. 1 6. 6
Unemployment(%) 6. 3 6. 9 6. 6 6. 4 6. 1
Total starts 1. 146 1. 047 1, 160 1, 420 1, 578
Single 1, 128 977 1, 018 1, 205 1, 324
Multi 17 70 142 214 254
Total Com' l($ mils) 16 26 30 36 44
Bank Deposits($ bils) 0. 9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2
Fishkind & Associates, Inc/ Econocast)
With unemployment rates low, in the 5 and 6 percent category.
Pensacola and Ft. Walton Beach are the only areas in Florida
with lower unemployment now than at the onset of the
recession. The Panhandle is also faring better than the rest
of the State when it comes to 1993 base realignments. Naval
Air Station ( NAS) Pensacola is slated to receive over 8, 000
new positions, mainly consisting of students, while other
smaller facilities in the area are also going to be
expanding. The downside is that over 3. 000 jobs will be lost
as the result of the closure of the Naval Aviation Depot.
Nevertheless, the net gain for the area will be over 5, 000
jobs. These additions should help when the 1995 BRAC
reconvenes.
Population growth has also increased since the 1990- 91 time
per i 0 d. The en t ire 8 - c 0un t y are a in NW F lor i d a is est i mat e d
to have grown 2. 1 percent in 1992. This growth is
significantly higher than the 1.
percent5 estimated in 1991.
Residential growth, which includes Panama City, was at 2. 1
percent in 1992. Western division, or Pensacola, recorded 2. 5
percent residential growth in 1992 and Central division,
which includes Ft. Walton Beach. experienced highest ratethe
of residential growth ~ n 1992 with 2. 7
percent. majority The
of the this growth in Central division is occurring in
Crestview and Destin. The
growth in Crestview is attributable
to the
continuing expansion of Eglin Air Force Base, while
the Mid- Bay Bridge has opened up Destin as an accessible and
attractive market. Destin is quickly becoming an upscale
housing community for upper income and retired households. As
indicated by these figures, along with increases in job
growth, and lower unemployment. NW Florida can be considered
in a state of expansion, one of the few areas in the state,
as well as the nation, to be considered so.
iriiWiif Economic Trends. 3rd Quarter 1993)
Florida Trend, December 1993)
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