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its prime long term treasury bond yield hit another low of 5. 7 percent recently. Currently, inflation is consistent at a low level. It is expected to be about 2. 6 percent in 1993 --- down from 2. 9 percent in 1992. 3. 1 percent in 1991 and 6. 1 percent in 1990. The backbone of growth in this nation is its exports. The U. S. is expected to continue expansion of its exports, although at a lower rate than in previous expansions. due to the recession in Europe and the slowdown in Japan. The United States hit a high of 7. 7 percent unemployment in the 1991 recession and recovery. which was better than the best rate achieved by Europe in the 1980s or 1990s to date ( 8. 3 1.... percent). LOCAL ECONOMY ( NW FLORIDA) Locally, over 17, 000 jobs were added in the second quarter in NW Florida. While all of Florida is currently in recovery, NW Florida is one of the few areas in the state actually under expansion. While Florida is adding jobs twice as fast as the nation. it H""* is not doing so evenly across the state. Along with Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale. Panama City, Ft. Walton Beach, and Pensacola have all experienced the biggest rate increases in employment in the state since the onset of the recession ~ n 1990. The military has always been a stabilizing presence for NW F lor i d a' s e con 0 my. yet it is the p r i vat e s e c tor. specifically health services, that has been the catalyst for the area' s recent growth. Within services, 50 percent of the growth is in health care, 18 percent is in personal services. and 15 percent is in social services ( day care centers and J!MW l' nursing homes). xiv 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Popu1ation( 000' s) 143 . 8 145. 7 147. 6 149. 4 151. 7 Growth 2. 2 1.9 1.9 1.8 2. 3 change 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.6 Employment( OOO' s) 53. 5 53. 7 54. 4 55. 3 56. 3 Growth 1.1 0. 2 0. 7 0. 9 1.0 change 2. 1 0. 4 1.2 1.7 1.8 Income ($ bils) 2. 3 2. 4 2. 6 2. 8 3. 0 change 7. 8 6. 3 6. 9 7. 1 6. 6 Unemployment(%) 6. 3 6. 9 6. 6 6. 4 6. 1 Total starts 1. 146 1. 047 1, 160 1, 420 1, 578 Single 1, 128 977 1, 018 1, 205 1, 324 Multi 17 70 142 214 254 Total Com' l($ mils) 16 26 30 36 44 Bank Deposits($ bils) 0. 9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 Fishkind & Associates, Inc/ Econocast) With unemployment rates low, in the 5 and 6 percent category. Pensacola and Ft. Walton Beach are the only areas in Florida with lower unemployment now than at the onset of the recession. The Panhandle is also faring better than the rest of the State when it comes to 1993 base realignments. Naval Air Station ( NAS) Pensacola is slated to receive over 8, 000 new positions, mainly consisting of students, while other smaller facilities in the area are also going to be expanding. The downside is that over 3. 000 jobs will be lost as the result of the closure of the Naval Aviation Depot. Nevertheless, the net gain for the area will be over 5, 000 jobs. These additions should help when the 1995 BRAC reconvenes. Population growth has also increased since the 1990- 91 time per i 0 d. The en t ire 8 - c 0un t y are a in NW F lor i d a is est i mat e d to have grown 2. 1 percent in 1992. This growth is significantly higher than the 1. percent5 estimated in 1991. Residential growth, which includes Panama City, was at 2. 1 percent in 1992. Western division, or Pensacola, recorded 2. 5 percent residential growth in 1992 and Central division, which includes Ft. Walton Beach. experienced highest ratethe of residential growth ~ n 1992 with 2. 7 percent. majority The of the this growth in Central division is occurring in Crestview and Destin. The growth in Crestview is attributable to the continuing expansion of Eglin Air Force Base, while the Mid- Bay Bridge has opened up Destin as an accessible and attractive market. Destin is quickly becoming an upscale housing community for upper income and retired households. As indicated by these figures, along with increases in job growth, and lower unemployment. NW Florida can be considered in a state of expansion, one of the few areas in the state, as well as the nation, to be considered so. iriiWiif Economic Trends. 3rd Quarter 1993) Florida Trend, December 1993) xv Q} tJ I:: 1j I:: Q} Q)

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