Fort Walton Beach Ordinance — 1757 Public School Facilities Element — reading text

o w • 1 U.. i 1._.:7.... - •' L. f.• 1 I z 15)- x '.-, • LLI 0 x ct a_ zi et D , wNC m 1. 1 0  Map 5 High School Attendance Zones 0 Okaloosa County—9- 27- 07 17 Final Deliverable Okaloosa County Public Schools Facilities Element Data & Analysis  PSFE Map C Ancillary Facilities 0 Okaloosa County—9- 27- 07 18 Final Deliverable Okaloosa County Public Schools Facilities Element Data & Analysis  Enrollment and Capacity The evaluation of the present and future relationship of enrollment and school capacity is fundamental to effective school facilities planning and evaluation of level of service standards. The School District' s 5- Year Facilities Work Program and the DOE' s annual Capital Outlay Full Time Equivalent ( COFTE) projections provide the foundation for this assessment. The Okaloosa District 2007 COFTE Forecast growth summary shows negative growth in middle schools and in the last three years for high schools and only a modest gain of just over 300 students in the elementary grades through 2011- 12. Therefore the 2007 FISH capacity for each school is appropriate based on the 2007 forecast. There are existing and projected facility surpluses and deficiencies within concurrency service areas. Historic & Projected Enrollment Current COFTE projections prepared by the DOE and extending through year 2011- 12 are shown in Table 9. The COFTE projections include public school students only. These projections do not include students receiving their education in private schools, by home schooling or in charter schools. In year 2007- 08, the public school enrollment represented approximately 85% of the school age population. Table 9: Okaloosa County Public Student Enrollment, Historic & Projected Pre K- 12 Students Percent School Year Elementary Middle High Enrollment Added/ Subtracted Increase 2002- 03* 28, 535 12, 875 6, 971 8, 689 2003- 04* I 28, 3621 1731 0. 6% 1 12, 9791 6, 8601 8, 523 2004- 05* 1 28, 4691 1071 0. 4% 1 12, 9761 6, 8251 8, 668 2005- 06* 1 28, 4831 141 0. 1% 1 12, 9891 6, 7151 8, 779 2006- 07* I 27, 9391 5441 1. 9%1 12, 8091 6, 4551 8, 675 2007- 08* I 28, 0031 641 0. 2% 1 12, 8151 6, 2691 8, 919 2008- 09** 1 27, 7531 2501 0. 9% 1 13, 2231 6, 2391 8, 291 2009- 10** 1 27, 8791 1261 0. 5% 1 13, 5051 6, 2221 8, 152 2010- 11** 28, 170 291 1. 0% 14, 026 6, 211 7, 933 2011- 12** 28, 511 341 1. 1% 14, 514 6, 191 7, 806 Source: Florida Department of Education, 2007 Capital Outlay Full Time Equivalent( COFTE) Forecast, July 2007. Actual Projected As a general observation, COFTE enrollment projections and BEBR school age population projections for Florida and for Florida counties tend to diverge near the end of the 10- year projection period. This divergence may be in part explained by methodology. The COFTE projections are based on cohort- survival and presume that 0 Okaloosa County—9- 27- 07 19 Final Deliverable Okaloosa County Public Schools Facilities Element Data & Analysis  the last five years will predict the ensuing ten years. In contrast, BEBR projections consistently predict that the proportion of school age children will decline. It is recommended that both projections be considered and compared for forecasting purposes. The COFTE cohort- survival approach is considered to be more reliable for short term, i. e. 5 years, while the BEBR methodology may be the more reliable long- term method. The levels of service and school needs projected for Okaloosa County in the first five years of this study are based on COFTE projections published in July 2007. As another measure of historic and projected population and enrollment figures Table 10 is provided from the Long Range Transportation Plan for comparison purposes. Table 10: Okaloosa County Population, Housing & Public School Enrollment Projections by Concurrency Service Area 5 YR Growth 20 YR Growth 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2004- 2010) ( 2004- 2025) CSA 1- Baker Population 7, 730 9, 342 12, 771, 16, 241 19, 712 1, 612 11, 982 Housing 3, 257 3, 915 5, 304 6, 711 8, 121 658 4, 864 Public School Enrollment K- 12* 143 163 180 197 213 20 70 IIITotal 143 163 180 197 213 20 70 CSA 2- Laurel Hill Population 2, 593 2, 918 3, 587 4, 368 4, 653 325 2, 060 Housing 1, 154 1, 306 1, 608 1, 916 2, 224 152 1, 070 Public School Enrollment K- 12* 72 82 91 99 107 10 35 Total 72 82 91 99 107 10 35 CSA 3- Crestview Population 36, 604 42, 137 56, 073 70, 315 84, 545 5, 533 47, 941 Housing 14, 809 17, 168 23, 184 29, 341 35, 494 2, 359 20, 685 Public School Enrollment Elementary 687 783 864 944 1, 025 96 338 Middle 296 338 373 407 442 42 146 High 364 414 457 500 542 50 178 Total 1, 347 1, 535 1, 694 1, 851 2, 009 188 662 CSA 4- Niceville Population 42, 039 46, 297 47, 725, 49, 149 50, 577 4, 258 8, 538 Housing 16, 356 18, 099 18, 711 19, 323 19, 220 1, 743 2, 864 Public School Enrollment Elementary 2, 179 2, 485 2, 739 2, 994 3, 249 306 1, 070 Okaloosa County- 9- 27- 07 20 Final Deliverable Okaloosa County Public Schools Facilities Element Data & Analysis  Middle 940 1, 073 1, 181 1, 292 1, 402 132 462 High 1, 153 1, 315 1, 450 1, 585 1, 720 162 567 Total 4, 272 4, 872 5, 370 5, 871 6, 371 600 2, 099 CSA 5- Choctahatchee Population 50, 056 60, 843 61, 599 62, 073 62, 552 10, 787 12, 496 Housing 21, 935 27, 016 27, 342 27, 527 27, 726 5, 081 5, 791 Public School Enrollment Elementary 349 398 438 480 520 49 171 Middle 151 172 189 207 225 21 74 High 184 211 232 254 276 27 92 Total 684 781 859 941 1021 97 337