Fort Walton Beach Council agenda — 03-23-2010 Special-Soundside Develp. Project — reading text

householders. Source: Demographic and Income Profile, STDB ESRI Site Analysis These growth rates are applied to the 2000 Census household by income statistics in order to bring the number of potential income qualified households to 2011. Based on the above, the 60% and 80% AMI estimated households are as follows: Value Tech Realty Services, Inc. www.gotovalue.com Page 49 64- Sound Side Apartments Market Supply and Demand Analysis MARKET HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE GROUP- LOW INCOME Income Levels 18 -24 25 -34 35 -44 45 -54 Total 25, 000 to $ 29, 999 263 420 405 207 1, 295 30, 000 to $ 34, 999 179 367 537 200 1, 283 35, 000 to $ 39, 999 155 408 545 241 1, 349 40,000 to $ 44, 999 89 325 378 302 1, 094 45, 000 to $ 49, 999 27 288 364 226 905 50, 000 to $ 59, 999 107 441 607 379 1, 534 2000 Census Total 820 2, 249 2, 836 1, 555 7, 460 Growth 2000 -2009 3. 87% 3. 87% 3. 87% 3. 87% 3. 87% 2009 Households 852 2, 336 2, 946 1, 615 7, 749 Growth 2010 0. 02% 0. 02% 0. 02% 0. 02% 0. 02% 2010 Households 852 2, 336 2, 946 1, 615 7, 750 Growth 2011 0. 02% 0. 02% 0.02% 0. 02% 0. 02% 2011 Households 852 2, 337 2, 947 1, 616 7, 752 Source: P55, Age of Householder by Household Income in 1999. Data Set: Census 2000 Summary File 3 SF 3) Sample Data. Demand for rental apartments is estimated as follows: 2011 SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS - 60% AMI and 80% AMI One- Bedroom Two -Bedroom Three -Bedroom Total Potential Rental Demand 1 1 2, 224 1 4, 821 708 7, 752 Capture Rate - 60% AMI and 80% AMI Once income qualified households are projected forward to the point in time when the proposed project will be constructed, a capture rate is applied. Capture rates were based on the propensity to rent by income as shown below. HOUSEHOLD TENURE BY INCOME - 2010 PRIMARYPRIMARY MARKETMARKET AREA-AREA- 60% 60% andand 80% 80% AMIAMI HouseholdHousehold Income Household IncomeIncome Owner Renter Propensity to Rent 0 -30% AM 316 461 59. 3% 30. 01- 50% AMI 454 487 51. 8% 50. 01 -80% AMI 917 780 46. 0% 80. 01- 120% AMI 1288 807 38. 5% 120 +% AMI 3020 677 18. 3% Source: Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, " Housing Needs Assessment." Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing, 2010. As illustrated above, Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse provides estimates of propensity to rent in ranges. Since propensity to rent for 60% - 80% AMI could not be obtained, the closest range was utilized instead, or 50.01 - 80% AMI. The propensity to rent in the defined area for persons earning between 60% and 80% of the Area Median Income is 46. 0 %. Therefore, a capture rate of 46.0% will be utilized in the income restricted ( 60% and 80% AMI) supply and demand analysis. Rental demand will be estimated by applying the capture rate to the respective income group, after accounting for current and future supply. Value Tech Realty Services, Inc. www.gotovalue.com Page SO 65-  Sound Side Apartments Market Supply and Demand Analysis Household Distribution of Demand Information was obtained from the 2000 Census relative to household distribution. This is shown in the table and chart below: MARKET BEDROOM DISTRIBUTION CENSUS Persons in Household Number Bedrooms Percent Based on Census One- person household 6, 419 1 28.7% Two- person household 8, 370 Three- person household 3, 699 2 62. 2% 75% of Four- person household 1, 847 25% of Four- person household 616 Five- person household 950 3+ 9. 1% Six- person household 328 Seven or more- person household 149 Total 22,377 100. 0% Source: P26, Household Type by Household Size. Data Set: Census 2000 Summary File 1 SF 1) 100 Percent Data. The bedroom distribution estimates provided by the Census represent a generally accurate perspective on the type of units preferred by the low -income rental households. Therefore, the bedroom distribution estimates provided by the Census were relied upon and will be utilized to estimate demand by unit type under the various scenarios. Supply To understand the dynamics of the market, a survey was conducted of all the apartment complexes in the area that actively marketed themselves to the public. Although smaller complexes and those that wished not to participate in our survey have been excluded, the majority of the rental communities did participate. Thus, the multifamily information presented provides a strong representation of the health and dynamics of the marketplace. Value Tech Realty Services, Inc. www.gotovalue. com Page SI 66- Sound Side Apartments Market Supply and Demand Analysis Market Area Apartment Rental Supply Information obtained from leasing agents and apartment managers was utilized for the source of the supply. The following map displays the apartment properties in relation to the subject. Page 52 Value Tech Realty Services, Inc. www.gotovalue.com 67-  Sound Side Apartments Market Supply and Demand Analysis The table below illustrates competitive properties in the subject market that are income and rent restricted or have market rents that fall in -line with 60% and 80% AMI: INCOME RESTRICTED PROPERTIES Income Occupied Property City Year Orientation Units Occupancy Units Choctaw Village Fort Walton Beach 1979 Section 8 48 94% 45 Heather Glenn Fort Walton Beach 2004 60% AMI 1 168 1 95% 160 MARKET- RATE PROPERTIES WITH RENTS AT 60% and 80% AMI* Chez Elan Fort Walton Beach 2004/ 06/ 08 276 87% 240 Madison Parc Fort Walton Beach 1999 108 93% 100 Cayo Grande FWB Fort Walton Beach 1989 168 95% 160 Colony House Fort Walton Beach 1979 138 94% 130 Falcon House Fort Walton Beach 1969 82 97% 80 Ja mar Fort Walton Beach 1987 66 82% 54 Golf Links Fort Walton Beach 1972 97 70% 68 Holly Sands Fort Walton Beach 1986 122 90% 110 Royale Fort Walton Beach 1974 99 84% 83 Captain' s Quarters Fort Walton Beach 1970 80 88% 70 Totals /Averse 1, 452 92% 1, 300 Note: * Properties operate: as market -rate but their rent levels compete with income -restricted ( 60% and 80% AMI). Source: Value Tech Realty Services, Inc., January 2010. Market -Rate Properties: Chez Elan is the newest property in the market. The property recently completed its third and final phase of 76 units in 2008. Occupancy has experienced a decline of about 5% since October 2009; however, management indicated that occupancy levels are higher than originally expected for this time of year. This property is the highest quality, modern apartment community in the market. Madison Pare was built in 1999 with 108 apartments. In April 2009, the property indicated near capacity occupancy levels but has since seen occupancy decline by roughly 5 %. Management has decreased rents to remain competitive with other properties in the market. The property is average to good in quality and ambiance. Cayo Grande — Fort Walton Beach has provided a large variation in their information with respect to occupancy levels. The most recent survey resulted in an occupancy level of 95 %. This is likely to be accurate because their competitors are also operating at similar levels. This property is good to average in overall