Okaloosa County BOCC — August 16, 2016 — Access EC Rider TDP - August Draft Report — reading text

3.0% 3.9% 5.2% Hispanic Origin Not of Hispanic/Latino origin 95.7% 93.2% 91.5% Hispanic or Latino origin 4.3% 6.80% 8.5% Educational Level < 12th grade 12.0% 9.3% 8.9% High school grad 27.1% 28.0% 27.0% Some college 36.7% 25.4% 25.7% College graduate 24.2% 26.8% 28.1% Below Poverty Level 8.8% 10.6% 13.7% Vehicle Available in Household None 4.1% 1.5% 2.0% One 33.6% 19.4% 22.2% Two 45.8% 47.1% 44.1% Three or more 16.5% 32.0% 31.7% Sources: 2000 Census, 2006 ACS, 2010 ACS, 2010; Census vehicles available in household from 2013 ACS 5-year estimate data Map 2-2 shows the percent of minorities by Census block group in 2014; the areas with high concentrations of minorities are throughout the municipalities of Wright and Crestview and a small pocket in the southern side of Fort Walton Beach. Households that speak limited English are another group that may have special transportation needs. The eastern side of Wright has the highest concentration (10–12%) of households with limited English capacity, as shown in Map 2-3. Households with limited access to personal vehicles also indicates another potential transit-dependent population and the percentage of zero-vehicle households and one-car households has decreased since 2000. Within Okaloosa County, 2% of households do not own a vehicle. Correspondingly, the percentage of households with three or more cars has nearly doubled, from 16.5% to 32% since 2000. The majority of households within the county had two or more cars in 2014. With respect to education level, the percent of college graduates has gradually increased from 24.2% in 2000 to an estimated 28.1% in 2014. The percent of the population who have attained less than the 12th grade level has decreased from 12% to 8.9% in 2000 and 2014, respectively. ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 10  Section 2 – Baseline Conditions Map 2-2: Minority Population Source: 2010-2014 ACS 5-Year Estimates ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 11  Section 2 – Baseline Conditions Map 2-3: Percent of Households Speaking Limited English Source: 2010-2014 ACS 5 Year Estimates ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 12 Section 2 – Baseline Conditions Age Distribution The current and future age distribution of the population in Okaloosa County is a major factor when considering demand for public transportation. According to the Okaloosa-Walton County 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) prepared by the Okaloosa-Walton TPO, the region’s population is unique, in that there are a high number of retirees, many of which have ties to the military; however, the average age in Okaloosa County is also younger overall than that of the Florida. The age distribution has seen incremental changes since the year 2000, most notably with the decreasing percent change in those that are minors (see Table 2-4). Table 2-4: Okaloosa County Age Distribution Trends Compared with Florida Age Geography 2000 2010 2014 Okaloosa County 22.34% 18.4% 18.8% 17 and under Florida (22.8%) (21.3%) (20.9%) Okaloosa County 63.72% 62.7% 65.9% 18–64 Florida (59.6%) (61.4%) (60.9%) Okaloosa County 13.95% 18.9% 15.3% 65+ Florida (17.6%) (17.3%) (18.2%) Source: 2000 Census, 2010 Census, 2014 ACS Persons ages 15 or younger are not legally allowed or able to operate a motor vehicle. However, younger children below age 14 are unlikely to ride transit on their own, but could do so in the 10-year horizon as they become more independent. Teenagers who are between ages 14 and 18 are more likely to not have their own vehicle and, therefore, have a higher propensity for using transit or finding a ride (carpool). Within Okaloosa County, the younger population generally resides in the inland and suburban areas such as Crestview. The teenage group between ages 15–19 is projected to increase from 6.49% in 2014 to 7.65% in 2025, as shown in Table 2-5. Table 2-5: Projections by Age Group Projection Year Age Group 2014 2015 2020 2025 0–9 13.2% 13.3% 12.6% 13.6% 10–14 6.4% 6.5% 7.1% 6.3% 15–19 6.5% 6.4% 6.9% 7.7% 15–17 3.9% 3.9% 4.2% 4.62% 18–19 2.6% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 20–44 34.7% 34.9% 36.4% 37.6% 45–64 28.5% 28.6% 28.3% 26.6% 65+ 16.1% 16.7% 19.6% 23.1% Source: BEBR ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 13 Section 2 – Baseline Conditions Older persons also may be more likely to use public transportation as the aging process begins to limit their ability to drive. As noted in the previous TDP, the retired population generally lives in the coastal areas. Table 2-6 shows the current and forecasted older adult population for Okaloosa County and Florida, based on data from BEBR’s Florida Population Studies Population Projections. By 2025, the older-adult population is projected to increase to 20.1% of the county’s total population. Furthermore, the population segment between ages 45 and 65, which will be the next wave of retirees, currently represents approximately 28.6% of the total population within the county. A growing need for public transit within Okaloosa County can be assumed, considering the growing share of age groups that are more likely to use transit. Table 2-6: Older Adult Population Projections Census Estimates BEBR Projections Geography 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Okaloosa County 13.9% 15.3% 15.7% 17.7% 20.1% 22.6% 22.7% 22.3% Florida 17.3% 18.6% 18.9% 21.0% 22.7% 24.9% 25.2% 25.5% Source: Based on BEBR population projections for Florida and Its counties 2015–2040, with estimates for 2014 Figure 2-1 compares the age distribution of Okaloosa County residents to Florida residents in 2014. Okaloosa County has a smaller percentage of residents who are age 65 and older compared to the state, but has a higher percentage of youths age 24 and younger. Figure 2-1: Age Distribution of Residents (2014) 100% 90% 13.95% 17.34% 80% 11.84% 12.43% 70% 65 and 60% up 50% 41.71% 39.69% 55-64 40% 25-54 30% 10.17% 9.25% 20% 10% 22.34% 21.28% 0% Okaloosa Florida Source: BEBR Projections by Age Group, June 2015 ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 14 Section 2 – Baseline Conditions Table 2-7 shows the means of transportation according to age group in Okaloosa County. The 2009–2013 ACS revealed that the majority of transit riders were ages 16–19. The second largest group of transit riders was young adults ages 20–24. Table 2-7: Means of Transportation According to Age Group Total Drove Alone Carpooled Public Transit Age Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate* Workers 16 and over 85,611 69,066 9,742 716 16–19 4.7% 3.8% 4.6% 61.9% 20–24 13.0% 10.5% 27.4% 28.5% 25–44 37.9% 38.9% 37.7% 9.6% 45–54 25.8% 27.7% 15.5% 0.0% 55–59 9.1% 9.3% 6.7% 0.0% 60 and over 9.4% 9.8% 8.1% 0.0% *Contains a very high margin of error Source: 2009–2013 ACS Income Income is a leading influence in travel decisions. Because there is less disposable income available, it can be inferred that low-income households are less likely to own one vehicle per licensed driver or able to make fewer discretionary trips and, therefore, may be more dependent on public transit, particularly for non- essential or recreational trips. Based on 2014 household income levels, the majority of Okaloosa County’s population lies within the middle- to upper-class ranges. In general, households within the coastal areas tend to be more affluent, as is typically seen throughout Florida. The county has seen household incomes trending higher, with a 10% increase in the number of households