Okaloosa County BOCC — August 16, 2016 — Access EC Rider TDP - August Draft Report — reading text

travel on common corridors experience decreases in service utilization. Conversely, routes that are synchronized and support each other in terms of service to major destinations or transfer locations and schedule benefit from that complementary relationship. The following section outlines the model input and assumptions, includes a description of the TBEST scenario performed using the model, and summarizes the ridership forecasts produced by TBEST. Model Inputs/Assumptions and Limitations TBEST uses various demographic and transit network data as model inputs. The inputs and the assumptions made in modeling the EC Rider system in TBEST are presented below. The EC Rider model used the recently-released TBEST Land Use Model structure (TBEST Land Use Model 2016), which is supported by parcel-level data developed from the Florida Department of Revenue (DOR) statewide tax database. The DOR parcel data contains land use designations and supporting attributes that allow the application of Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE)-based trip generation rates at the parcel level as an indicator of travel activity. It should be noted, however, that the model is not interactive with roadway network conditions. Therefore, ridership forecasts will not show direct sensitivity to changes in roadway traffic conditions or speeds. ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 127  Section 7: Demand and Mobility Assessment Transit Network The transit route network for all existing EC Rider routes was created to reflect 2015 conditions, the validation year for the model. The transit network for Okaloosa County was available in TBEST; however, the system was not current, so data received from the transit agency were used to update the model. Data include:  Current service span  Existing headways during off-peak season (frequency at which a bus arrives at a stop—e.g., 1 bus every 60 minutes)  Passenger travel times on board a bus  Special generators  Observed average daily ridership Demographic Data The demographics used as the base input for the TBEST model were derived from Census 2010 geography and population characteristics, ACS Five-Year Estimates (2009–2013), 2015 InfoUSA employment data, and 2015 parcel-level land use data from the Florida DOR. Using the data inputs listed above, the model captures market demand (population, demographics, employment, and land use characteristics) within ¼ mile of each stop. Population and Employment Growth Rates TBEST uses a socio-economic data growth function to project population and employment data. A population growth rate and an employment growth rate were calculated using the socio-economic data forecasts developed for the latest NWFRPM. As indicated previously, population and employment data are hard-coded into the model and cannot be modified by end-users. As applied, the growth rates do not reflect fluctuating economic conditions as experienced in real time. Special Generators Special generators were identified to evaluate the opportunity for generating high ridership. Okaloosa County special generators include the following:  Boardwalk Wayside Park (transfer station)  Uptown Station (transfer station)  Walmart in Fort Walton Beach (transfer station)  Santa Rosa Mall (shopping mall, transfer station)  Destin Commons (shopping mall, transfer station)  Northwest Florida State College (university)  Fort Walton Beach Medical Center (hospital, transfer station)  White Wilson (transfer station) ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 128  Section 7: Demand and Mobility Assessment TBEST Model Limitations It has long been a desire of FDOT to have a standard modeling tool for transit demand that could be standardized across the state, similar to the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model Structure (FSUTMS) model used by metropolitan planning organizations in developing long range transportation plans. However, whereas TBEST is an important tool for evaluating improvements to existing and future transit services, model outputs do not account for latent demand for transit that could yield significantly higher ridership, and, correspondingly, model outputs may over-estimate demand in isolated cases. In addition, TBEST cannot display sensitivities to external factors such as an improved marketing and advertising program, changes in pricing service for customers, and other local conditions. Although TBEST provides ridership projections at the route and bus stop levels, its strength lies more in its ability to facilitate relative comparisons of ridership productivity. As a result, model outputs are not absolute ridership projections, but rather are comparative for evaluation in actual service implementation decisions. TBEST has generated interest from departments of transportation in other states and continues to be a work in progress that will become more useful as its capabilities are enhanced in future updates to the model. Consequently, it is important for EC Rider to integrate sound planning judgment and experience when interpreting TBEST results. Ridership Forecast Using these inputs, assumptions, and actual ridership data, the TBEST model was validated. Using the validation model as the base model, TBEST ridership forecasts for this TDP major update planning starting year (2017) and horizon year (2026) were developed. The generated annual ridership forecasts reflect the estimated level of service utilization if no changes were to be made to any of the fixed-route services. Tables 7-2 shows the projected number of annual riders by route in 2017 and 2026 as well as average annual ridership growth rates from 2017 to 2026 derived from T-BEST. ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 129  Section 7: Demand and Mobility Assessment Table 7-2: EC Rider Average Annual Ridership and Growth Rates with No Improvements, 2017–2026* Average Average Absolute Average Route Annual Ridership, Annual Ridership, Change, Annual Growth Rate, 2017 2026 2017–2026 2017–2026 1 27,874 30,263 2,389 0.86% 2 14,488 15,927 1,439 0.99% 3 6,223 6,835 612 0.98% 4 18,161 20,208 2,047 1.13% 5 1,825 2,047 222 1.22% 14 9,304 10,245 941 1.01% 20 22,125 27,796 5,671 2.56% 30 18,220 25,200 6,980 3.83% 32 13,795 18,372 4,577 3.32% 33 9,629 10,765 1,136 1.18% Total All 141,644 167,658 26,014 1.84% Routes *Based on TBEST model Forecast Ridership Analysis Summary Based on the TBEST model results shown in Table 7-2, maintaining the status quo will result in a gradual increase in EC Rider ridership over time. According to the projections, average annualized ridership is expected to increase by 18.4% (from 141,644 to 167,658 riders) by 2026, or an annual growth rate of about 1.84%. The model results show that the most significant ridership growth in the existing EC Rider network will occur on the following routes within the next 10 years:  Route 20  Route 30  Route 32 However, for EC Rider to increase its market share for transit, service expansion will need to occur, and service improvements identified in this plan, other transit planning efforts, and from the public feedback received will need to be implemented. ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 130  SECTION 8: ALTERNATIVES EVALUATION This section identifies the potential transit improvements developed for the Access EC Rider TDP. Those proposed improvements, or alternatives, for fixed-route service represent the transit needs for the next 10 years without consideration of funding constraints. The identified service improvements were then ranked using an evaluation process. This prioritized list of potential improvements was used to guide the 10-year implementation and cost feasible financial plans. As Okaloosa County continues to grow, and if the demand for transit follows that same overall growth, the prioritized transit needs will assist Okaloosa County in selecting and implementing service improvements as funding becomes available. Development of 10-Year Transit Needs The Access EC Rider TDP transit alternatives consist of improvements to enhance existing EC Rider services and expand transit services to new areas. The alternatives reflect the transit needs of the community and have been developed based on information gathered through the following methods:  Public Workshops and Discussion Groups – Several public workshops and discussion groups were held to gather input from the public, stakeholders, and bus operators regarding what alternatives should be considered for the next 10 years.  Transit Surveys – An on-board survey targeting bus passengers was conducted as part of the Access EC Rider TDP planning process to obtain input from riders. Surveys from the transit users and non- users during two discussion group workshops provided additional input. In addition, EC Rider bus operators were surveyed to gather input on rider and operator comments/concerns.  Interviews – Ten interviews were conducted with community leaders from different organizations including the Okaloosa County Commission, Eglin Air Force Base, municipal councils, and the Okaloosa Tourism Development Council.  Transit Demand Assessment – An assessment of transit demand and needs was conducted for Okaloosa County. Three types of technical analyses, together with the baseline conditions assessment, performance reviews and situation appraisal conducted previously, were also used in developing the list of transit alternatives by identifying areas that have characteristics shown to be supportive of transit. Several improvement alternatives were developed and grouped into the following three main categories, each of which are summarized in more detail below: ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 131  Section 8: Alternatives