Okaloosa County BOCC — August 16, 2016 — Access EC Rider TDP - August Draft Report — reading text

process to generate Strategy 6.1.2 revenues consistent with those forecasted in this TDP. Develop a long range financial plan that maximizes grant funding sources for TDP strategic Objective 6.2 improvements and long range transportation improvements. Continue to coordinate with the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and FDOT to identify grant Strategy 6.2.1 funding sources that can fund eligible projects identified in this TDP. Objective 6.3 Ensure that TDP needs are included in the Long Range Transportation Plan efforts. Coordinate with TPO staff to ensure that transportation facilities accommodate users of all ages Strategy 6.3.1 and abilities, including the young, persons with disabilities, the economically challenged, and the elderly. Seek to additional local funds when such funds can leverage federal and state grant funding Objective 6.4 opportunities. When projects are eligible for FDOT service development funds, seek local funds to match at 50% Strategy 6.4.1 levels. Goal 7: Pursue regional transportation needs with surrounding counties and the overall Fort Walton Beach Urbanized Area. Proactively seek partnerships with Walton County and Beaches of South Walton business Objective 7.1 interests to develop transit services linking Walton and Okaloosa Counties. As regional local governments match aspirations for public transportation with local funds to Strategy 7.1.1 operate service, coordinate transit linkages. Proactively seek partnerships with Santa Rosa County government and business interests to Objective 7.2 develop transit services linking Santa Rosa and Okaloosa Counties. Coordinate regional transit linkages as regional local governments match aspirations for public Strategy 7.2.1 transportation with local funds to operate additional regional service. Support the Okaloosa-Fort Walton TPO in implementing Express Transit Services identified in Objective 7.3 the LRTP. Coordinate with the Okaloosa-Fort Walton TPO to implement transit service that addresses Strategy 7.3.1 regional needs, including express transit services connecting Crestview, Fort Walton Beach, Eglin Air Force Base, Hurlburt Field, Destin and South Walton County. ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 120  SECTION 7: DEMAND AND MOBILITY ASSESSMENT This section summarizes the demand and mobility needs assessment conducted as part of the Access EC Rider TDP. Three assessment techniques were used to assess demand for transit services in Okaloosa County:  Discretionary Market Assessment  Traditional Market Assessment  Forecast Ridership Analysis using transit planning modeling The summary of the assessment techniques are presented and followed by the results of each analysis. When combined with the situation appraisal, performance reviews, and public involvement feedback, the demand assessment yields the building blocks for evaluation the transit needs for the next 10 years. Market Assessment The baseline conditions assessment for developing the Access EC Rider TDP includes an evaluation from two perspectives—the discretionary market and the traditional market, the two predominant rider markets for bus transit service. Analytical tools for conducting each market analysis include a Density Threshold Assessment (DTA) and a Transit Orientation Index (TOI). These tools can be used to determine whether existing transit routes are serving areas of the county considered to be transit-supportive for the corresponding transit market. The transit markets and the corresponding market assessment tool used to measure each are described below. Discretionary Market Assessment The discretionary market refers to potential riders living in higher-density areas of the county that may choose to use transit as a commuting or transportation alternative. A DTA was conducted based on industry-standard relationships to identify the areas of Okaloosa County that experience transit-supportive residential and employee density levels today as well as in the future. Dwelling unit and employment data developed as part of the Fort Walton-Okaloosa County TPO’s adopted 2040 LRTP were used to conduct the DTA. Three levels of density thresholds were developed to indicate whether or not an area contains sufficient densities to sustain some level of fixed-route transit operations:  Minimum – reflects minimum dwelling unit or employment densities to consider basic fixed-route transit services (i.e., fixed-route bus service). ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 121  Section 7: Demand and Mobility Assessment  High – reflects relatively higher dwelling unit or employment densities that may be able to support higher levels of transit investment than areas that meet only the minimum density threshold (i.e., increased frequencies, express bus).  Very High – reflects very high population or employment densities that may be able to support higher levels of transit investment than areas that meet the minimum or high density thresholds (i.e., premium transit services, etc.). Table 7-1 presents the density thresholds for each of the noted categories. Table 7-1: Transit Service Density Thresholds Transit Investment Population Density Threshold Employment Density Threshold Minimum <5 dwelling units/acre <4 employees/acre High 6–7 dwelling units per acre 5–6 employees/acre Very High > 7 dwelling units/acre > 7 employees/acre Maps 7-1 and 7-2 illustrate the 2015 and 2025 DTAs, respectively, and show the existing EC Rider transit route network to indicate how well EC Rider covers the areas of the county that are considered transit- supportive, i.e., areas supporting at least a minimum investment in transit. The 2015 DTA analysis indicates that the discretionary transit market is principally employment-based, with “high” and “very high” employment density thresholds primarily in Fort Walton Beach, Destin and, to some extent, Crestview. In reviewing the 2025 DTA, the locations of the discretionary market are not anticipated to change, but a shift towards residential-driven ridership could occur as “high” dwelling unit densities are anticipated in Fort Walton Beach by 2025. As shown in these two maps, both the existing “high” and very high” employment-based thresholds and projected “high” residential thresholds align well with the existing route structure. ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 122  Section 7: Demand and Mobility Assessment Map 7-1: 2015 Density Threshold Assessment ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 123  Section 7: Demand and Mobility Assessment Map 7-2: 2025 Density Threshold Assessment ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 124  Section 7: Demand and Mobility Assessment Traditional Market Assessment A traditional transit market refers to population segments that historically have had a higher propensity to use transit and are dependent on public transit for their transportation needs. Traditional transit users include older adults, youth, and households that are low-income and/or have no vehicles. A TOI assists in identifying areas of the county where a traditional transit market exists. To create the TOI for this analysis, five-year demographic data estimates from the 2008–2013 Five-Year ACS estimates were compiled at the census tract level (the most detailed level of data available from ACS) and categorized according to each tract’s relative ability to support transit based on the prevalence of specific demographic characteristics. Five population and demographic characteristics that are traditionally associated with the propensity to use transit were used to develop the TOI:  Population density (persons per square mile)  Proportion of the population age 60 and over (older adults)  Proportion of the population under age 15 (youth)  Proportion of the population below the poverty level ($25,000 for a family of 4)  Proportion of households with no vehicles (zero-vehicle households) Using data for these characteristics and developing a composite ranking for each census tract, each area was ranked as “very high,” “high,” “medium,” “low,” or “very low” in their respective levels of transit orientation. Map 7-3 illustrates the 2013 TOI, reflecting areas throughout the county with varying traditional market potential. Also shown is the existing transit route network to show how well EC Rider covers those areas. Based on this analysis, the Crestview and Fort Walton Beach areas have the highest transit orientation. The existing bus routes align fairly well with the highest transit orientation areas in Fort Walton Beach, and there are areas of higher transit orientation in Crestview that are currently not directly served by the existing transit network. ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 125  Section 7: Demand and Mobility Assessment Map 7-3: Transit Orientation Index ACCESS EC RIDER | Okaloosa County’s 10-Year Transit Development Plan 126  Section 7: Demand and Mobility Assessment Forecast Ridership Analysis The Transit Boardings Estimation and Simulation Tools (T-BEST) is a comprehensive transit analysis and ridership-forecasting model that can simulate travel demand at the individual route level. The software was designed to provide near- and mid-term forecasts of transit ridership consistent with the needs of transit operational planning and TDP development. In producing model outputs, T-BEST also considers the following:  Transit network connectivity – The level of connectivity between routes within a bus network—the greater the connectivity between bus routes, the more efficient the bus service becomes.  Spatial and temporal accessibility – Service frequency and distance between stops—the larger the physical distance between potential bus riders and bus stops, the lower the level of service utilization. Similarly, less frequent service is perceived as less reliable and, in turn, utilization decreases.  Time-of-day variations – Peak-period travel patterns are accommodated by rewarding peak service periods with greater service utilization forecasts.  Route competition and route complementarities – Competition between routes is considered. Routes connecting to the same destinations or anchor points or that