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quarter of 2013 volatility in marestic bonds increased
shamly resulting In a 2. 3% decline In the Barclays Aggregate Index ( the
worst quarterly return since 2004). Despite somewhat disappointing aw
economic news, the quarter began with the market name 1. 0% in April. The aW
key driver of returns was a continuation of lower quality. Iorger dated bonds
leading the market. In May, mixed signals from Fed Chairman Ben Barracks zw
focused attennor on reduction (' tapering ") of the central bank' s asset
Purchases . As a results bond markets reversed course resulting in a sharp 21
had in interest rates and a widening In spreads, On June 19, Chairman
demand released an optimistic statement on the US. a any which 1. W
served to further heighten concern that the Fed would taper their asset
purchases sooner than expected Bemanks s comments served to increase I
the pressure on band prices leading to a t 6% decline during the month of
May w
Though rates rase sharply during the second quarter, the shift was uneven o. W
across the yield curve wiO short rates virtually unchanged and intermediate
and long -dated bonds moving the most. The absclute change In yield levels use
Is below.:
aq
2- Year J. S. Treasury, + 11 bps lu112 Aa. 11 Sep12 Oul11 l 4 neclp Jan -11 lkb- 13yar- 13 q,, 13 May -13 Jun -11
5Y J S T asury + 64 bps
1- Year U. S. Treasury + 72 bps s.W
10 - Year J. S. Treasury , 65 bps
4W4W
For several quaders, investors have faced a market charadenzed by
4O
abnormally low yields and little income to cushion any measurable price 4O
decline. Those pace declines, via higher rates, a coed in the second 3W
quarter. The result was a decline In the Barclays Aggregate Index not seen
In almost en rears.
aW
Even though markets now offer yields higher than those of the past several 2
2WW
quarters, the overall level of Interest rate risk continues to be much higher
2' W
than the potential return . Going forward, we believe volatility will likely 2' W
persist. As painful as the second quarter was for many market participants, t' W
flat to negative returns could persist over the near -term.
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